The Ontario government has emphasized a significant number: $8.5 billion. This amount represents the projected annual economic boost expected from an expanded Billy Bishop airport by 2050, as stated by Premier Doug Ford’s administration. Despite the repeated mention of this figure, neither the province nor the Toronto Port Authority, the entity that owns Billy Bishop, has provided any substantiating evidence. The province has not disclosed whether it conducted its economic analysis, and the port authority indicated that its study on the economic impact is still ongoing.
Numerous experts express doubts about the validity of the $8.5 billion estimation and suggest that the potential economic advantages of enlarging the airport might be exaggerated. However, these purported benefits are a crucial aspect of the province’s justification for overriding planning and environmental regulations, seizing land from the city, and assuming the municipality’s responsibilities in the tripartite agreement governing the land to facilitate airport expansion and jet operations.
Sandford Borins, a retired University of Toronto professor specializing in public management and airport planning, criticized the Ford government’s inclination to announce grand plans without conducting thorough analyses. The provincial government argues that the expansion would stimulate the economy and is essential due to the escalating traffic at Toronto Pearson airport.
In March, the premier declared intentions to designate Billy Bishop airport as a “special economic zone,” allowing the province to sidestep certain laws for development under Bill 5. Subsequently, in April, Ontario Transportation Minister Prabmeet Sarkaria introduced legislation to enable the province to assume the City of Toronto’s role in the tripartite agreement governing the land. The agreement currently involves the city, the federal government, and the Toronto Port Authority, a federal agency.
The Toronto Port Authority stated that work is ongoing to quantify the economic impact of modernizing the airport. Although preliminary work was conducted last year, the economic impact study remains ongoing and is expected to continue through the fall. The transportation minister’s office emphasized the importance of the economic benefit but did not address inquiries regarding the reliance on incomplete studies or the province’s independent analysis.
The debate continues regarding the economic viability of expanding Billy Bishop airport. Critics like Borins question the economic benefits, suggesting that much of the traffic might shift from Pearson, resulting in comparable economic contributions regardless of the airport used. Frédéric Dimanche, a professor specializing in hospitality and tourism management, highlights the challenges of measuring a passenger’s economic value and emphasizes the importance of considering environmental costs in economic assessments.
Uncertainty persists regarding the total expenses involved in expanding the airport to accommodate jets. The final cost is contingent on the yet-to-be-finalized plan, as acknowledged by Deborah Wilson from the Toronto Port Authority. The port authority CEO mentioned an anticipated cost range of $4 to $5 billion over 25 years, with no current financial requests made to the province or federal government. Premier Ford hinted at the province potentially contributing to the expansion costs, pending federal government involvement.
The federal government’s approval is necessary for the plan to proceed, as outlined in the tripartite agreement. Federal Transport Minister Steven MacKinnon’s office did not confirm financial support but emphasized the importance of upholding safety, environmental protection, and community impact standards.
Amid ongoing studies by the Toronto Port Authority, NDP MPP Chris Glover called for independent economic analyses rather than relying solely on reports commissioned by interested parties. Dimanche echoed the sentiment, emphasizing the need for multiple analyses to make informed decisions regarding the economic impacts of the airport expansion.