A recent poll conducted by Janet Brown Opinion Research for CBC News shows that despite the initial optimism surrounding the memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed by Prime Minister Mark Carney and Premier Danielle Smith, a majority of Albertans are skeptical about the likelihood of a new pipeline being built. The survey, which involved 1,200 participants, revealed that 57% of respondents lack confidence that the MOU will lead to the construction of a bitumen pipeline from Alberta to the B.C. coast. In contrast, 37% of participants expressed some level of confidence in the project, while 6% remained undecided.
Energy analysts point out the challenges associated with the MOU, citing past instances where major pipeline projects, such as Northern Gateway, Energy East, and Keystone XL, have failed to materialize. The upcoming deadline of July 1 for Alberta to submit an application for the pipeline project to Ottawa adds to the uncertainty surrounding its fruition. Al Salazar from Enverus describes the prevailing sentiment among Albertans as the “battered pipeline optimism syndrome,” reflecting a long history of unsuccessful pipeline proposals.
John Santos, a data scientist at Janet Brown Opinion Research, notes that individuals who express confidence in the pipeline project often share common traits, including admiration for Carney and a strong sense of national unity. On the other hand, supporters of Danielle Smith, who have been vocal in their skepticism about the MOU, believe that the project’s success is crucial for proving the effectiveness of federalism. Despite the prevailing doubts, developments such as corporate interest and favorable market conditions could bolster confidence in the project.
The survey also indicates a shift in public opinion regarding Smith’s efforts to improve Alberta’s relationship with the federal government. While a majority of respondents approve of her initiatives, there has been a slight decrease in strong approval ratings compared to previous years. The findings highlight a correlation between sentiment towards the MOU and attitudes towards Smith’s governance approach, with political affiliations playing a significant role in shaping opinions.
Overall, the survey provides insights into the complex dynamics surrounding the proposed pipeline project and the political landscape in Alberta. As deadlines approach and public sentiment evolves, the future of the MOU and its implications for the province remain uncertain.