The El Niño weather phenomenon is projected to escalate through 2027 and may become the most potent occurrence yet, heightening the likelihood of extreme weather in the upcoming year, as stated by the World Meteorological Organization on Thursday. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo emphasized that if the current trend persists, it could surpass any event since monitoring began, reaching unprecedented levels in the past four decades.
According to the UN weather agency, the latest forecasts indicate a nearly 100% probability that El Niño will endure until February 2027, driven by exceptionally warm Pacific Ocean temperatures. This level of certainty has never been expressed before by the WMO. A robust El Niño has the potential to significantly alter global rainfall and temperature patterns, leading to the escalation of extreme weather phenomena such as typhoons.
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres stated, “El Niño is being supersized before our eyes. The science unequivocally shows that the planet is entering uncharted territory, with rising temperatures in uncharted waters.” El Niño, a cyclical warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific caused by weakening trade winds, occurs naturally every two to seven years and typically lasts up to 12 months, triggering intense rains and droughts across Latin America.
The current El Niño event has already impacted soft commodities in tropical regions, resulting in a severe food crisis along Central America’s Dry Corridor. The WMO anticipates the peak of this phenomenon towards the end of the year, with lasting effects into 2027 and an anticipated increase in global temperatures next year, according to Saulo.
Saulo emphasized the WMO’s heightened preparedness and early warning efforts in response to the situation, stating, “WMO is dedicated to collaborating closely with partners within the United Nations and humanitarian system to provide essential climate intelligence and insights to support disaster management and climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy, and water resources.”