Ontario is anticipated to witness a significant decline in its international student population, with Statistics Canada’s preliminary estimates indicating a loss of over a third due to the federal government’s student permit cap. According to a recent report by the agency, the measures implemented by the federal government have resulted in a notable decrease in new international students in Canada, although the overall enrollment decline was more moderate.
The province of Ontario is expected to be the most impacted, with an estimated loss of 92,000 full-time international students in public post-secondary institutions for the academic year 2025-26. Despite the initial two-year duration of the cap, the federal government has outlined plans to continue reducing the number of international students admitted to the country, aiming to admit 155,000 students in 2026 and 150,000 in 2027 and 2028.
Prior to the implementation of the permit cap, Ontario housed the highest number of international students in the country, as per Statistics Canada data. The estimates provided by the agency were based on national survey data from post-secondary institutions and administrative data from Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) and the Canada Revenue Agency.
Amir Moghadam, an international PhD student at the University of Toronto, expressed concerns about the changing environment for students in Canada following the government’s actions. He acknowledged the need for control over international student numbers but emphasized that students were unfairly caught in circumstances beyond their control, such as rising living costs and underfunding in the post-secondary sector.
The federal government’s decision to impose the student cap was aimed at alleviating housing pressures and addressing concerns about exploitation of students by post-secondary institutions. Jeff Brown, a professor at George Brown Polytechnic, highlighted that the impact of the student cap changes would have been less severe if the post-secondary system had not already been facing funding challenges.
Ontario’s Ministry of Colleges and Universities spokesperson, Bianca Giacoboni, mentioned that the provincial government has made significant investments in post-secondary education to counterbalance the effects of the permit cap changes. The province announced an additional $6.4 billion investment in the postsecondary sector, aiming to maintain the quality of education in Ontario.
Rob Kristofferson, president of the Ontario Confederation of University Faculty Associations, expressed little surprise at the preliminary findings, attributing the situation to universities relying heavily on international students for funding. He stressed the importance of robust public funding to elevate the university system to meet international standards and attract a diverse student body.
In conclusion, the student permit cap has led to a substantial loss of international students in Ontario, prompting stakeholders to reconsider funding models and strategies to maintain the quality of education in the province.