In the previous year’s national election, discussions in Quebec shifted from defending the province’s interests to protecting Canada against Donald Trump’s tariff threats and remarks about assimilating Canada as the 51st state. The Liberals, led by Mark Carney, capitalized on this sentiment during the election, achieving their best outcome in Quebec in decades and sidelining the Bloc Québécois.
The focus on Quebec identity, secularism, and language was overshadowed by the noise emanating from Washington. As the provincial election commences, there is speculation on whether the U.S. president could once again play a significant role.
The recently imposed tariffs were central in the pre-election discourse, compelling all party leaders to demonstrate their ability to shield the province from the economic repercussions. Economic management during uncertain times appears to be a key concern for voters, according to Philippe Fournier, a polling expert.
Before the trade tensions escalated, polls indicated that healthcare, housing, and the cost of living were top priorities for voters. The Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) faced challenges due to discontent among voters after two terms in power. Economic stability could be pivotal, with the CAQ potentially benefiting the most if voters prioritize this issue.
Quebec is projected to be heavily impacted by the new tariffs due to its significant reliance on automotive, metals, and manufacturing exports. Parti Québécois leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon assured that a referendum would not be initiated until the end of Trump’s second term, emphasizing the election’s focus on Quebec’s future.
Comparisons have been drawn to Mark Carney’s leadership, with CAQ Leader Christine Fréchette leveraging her position during the crisis. Fréchette announced financial aid programs targeted at sectors most affected by the tariffs, aiming to replicate Carney’s success in handling challenging situations.
Fréchette’s opponents are challenging her suitability to navigate the current circumstances. Québec Solidaire proposed a $1 billion annual “Trump provision” to support affected workers and businesses, while the Conservatives led by Éric Duhaime pledged significant spending cuts and tax relief.
The leader who can convey stability and reassure voters amidst the uncertainties linked to Trump and the tariffs may gain an advantage in the election, according to Fournier. The competition among the leaders to establish themselves as the steady hand in turbulent times remains intense.