The 2026 wildfire season has seen a slow start, with a lower number of fires compared to the average. However, officials caution that the situation could worsen as the summer progresses. Despite the current low activity, the government anticipates above-average conditions in the upcoming months.
The extent of the wildfire risk hinges on the weather patterns in the coming months. If the predicted above-average temperatures materialize nationwide, British Columbia faces the highest wildfire risk, especially in July. Southern Ontario and Quebec follow closely with the second-highest risk, expected to peak in June.
As of now, wildfires have affected around 18,000 hectares of forest, significantly lower than the 10-year average of 519,000 hectares for this period. While the current area burned is less than five percent of the 10-year average, officials note that the record-setting wildfire years of 2023 and 2025 have elevated national averages.
Currently, there are 65 active wildfires in Canada, with six classified as out of control. The National Preparedness Level stands at one, the lowest level, indicating that all regions can handle wildfires without federal assistance. The recent addition of 10 new firefighting aircraft is expected to enhance regional response capabilities in case of adverse summer weather conditions.
Government officials highlight the improved coordination between federal and provincial wildfire management ministers, enabling better preparedness and planning for potential crises. Minister of Emergency Management Eleanor Olszewski emphasized the importance of proactive planning and close coordination.
Despite reports of a strong El Niño expected to start in June or July and peak in November, officials believe it will not significantly impact the wildfire season in Canada. This climate phenomenon is predicted to bring warmer temperatures but is not anticipated to exacerbate wildfire risks.