A recent study reveals that the Canadian boycott of travel to the U.S., primarily driven by opposition to President Donald Trump, his disruptive tariffs, and provocative statements, has had a more significant impact than initially estimated. While official Statistics Canada data indicates a 25% drop in Canadian residents returning from the U.S. last year, research conducted by the University of Toronto’s School of Cities using cellphone tracking reveals a more substantial 42% decrease in cross-border trips.
The analysis focused on Canadian mobile devices traveling to various U.S. metro areas between April 1, 2025, and March 31, 2026. The decline in travel was particularly pronounced in popular warm-weather destinations traditionally favored by Canadian tourists escaping winter. Notably, trips to places like Myrtle Beach, S.C., saw a 65% decrease in Canadian visitors, while cities in Florida such as Orlando and Miami experienced drops of 50% or more.
The impact was not limited to sunny locales, as cities like San Francisco, New York, and Boston also witnessed over a 50% decline in Canadian visitors. Out of 267 U.S. metro areas analyzed, only a few, such as Cleveland and Portland, saw an increase in Canadian visits. The study suggests that the boycott is affecting cities of all sizes across the U.S., impacting both leisure and business travel patterns.
The lead researcher, Karen Chapple, emphasized that the data highlights a significant shift in cross-border business and trade dynamics, with Canadian businesses potentially exploring opportunities in other countries due to the challenging U.S. market conditions. The study also revealed that Canadians are now visiting fewer destinations in the U.S., indicating a shift in travel behavior.
The decline in Canadian tourism has had severe repercussions for businesses reliant on traveler flows, such as duty-free stores along the border. Barbara Barrett, executive director of the Frontier Duty Free Association, noted the substantial sales decline at border stores, with some facing the possibility of closure. The impact on Las Vegas, historically a popular destination for Canadian tourists, has been notable, with Mexican visitors nearly matching Canadian numbers for the first time outside of COVID-19.
The overall decrease in Canadian travel to the U.S. has prompted concerns in the tourism industry, leading to efforts to attract Canadian visitors back to key destinations like Las Vegas. Despite promotional campaigns and at-par exchange rate offers, the ongoing decline in Canadian travel remains a challenge for businesses and destinations heavily reliant on Canadian tourism.